Wendell Moore Jr.'s confidence key for success
Confidence and physical improvements have Wendell Moore Jr. off to a huge start to the season, but his coaches believe he has another level.
The eye test.
It’s one of those common phrases in sports. It’s also a point of division within sports analysis. Think about how often you hear/see an analyst, whether on television or in written form, talk about the analytics or statistical breakdowns of a team or player’s performance. Then consider how many discuss what they’re seeing and toss out the phrase, “I don’t care what the analytics are saying …”.
It’s probably a 50-50 split when it comes to which side people find themselves on.
Here at Bull City Hoops we live in both worlds. We tend to look at both, often using one as a qualifier against or for the other.
When considering the eye test there’s a lot about Duke junior wing Wendell Moore Jr. that jumps out.
The physical traits: He’s leaner. He’s more athletic. He’s quicker.
The intangible traits: He’s more confident. He’s a better leader. He’s more vocal.
All of those characteristics can be seen. There’s really no denying that he has improved in each of those categories.
Then there are the statistical analytics. Clearly the numbers show he’s a much better player than he was during his first two seasons. So far in the 2021-22 campaign, Moore has increased his production in every major category, improving by: 8.1 points, 1.7 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game. He’s also shooting nearly 15% better from the floor and 2.5% better from long range.
Moore has undoubtedly taken his game to a whole new level.
“He’s been the best captain and leader that we’ve had here in a long time,” assistant coach Nolan Smith said. “He’s really taken a big jump, so I’m just excited to see the remainder of this season.”
No one can really argue those points, as Moore has proven to be an incredibly important piece to this Duke basketball team. He is tied with Paolo Banchero for the team lead in points per game at 17.8. He’s tied with Mark Williams for second in rebounds per game at 6.5. He leads the team in assists and is second on the team in steals per game behind Trevor Keels.
Through eight games, he’s truly had a spectacular year.
Smith attributes that growth to the work Moore put in this offseason. Part of that was his focus on improving physically. Many have talked about how he changed the way he runs, but few have discussed how that has impacted his game beyond simply being more athletic. Smith talked about it last week.
“He made the choice this summer to stay here and work with coach Will [Stephens], focus on his body and become a better athlete,” Smith noted. “He worked on his run. People are like, ‘How do you work on your run?’ He changed his gait – he started getting a longer gait to his run, and that was key.
“Now, you see him making these athletic plays. His hang time is greater than it was last year. Last year, he would go in there and make contact and boom, he’s on the ground, he’s throwing up a bad shot. Now, he’s making contact and he’s able to float and still finish.”
There’s more to the evolution of Moore’s game, though.
To make all of those physical improvements work for him, Moore had to change his mental approach. For him that really meant knowing himself as a player, and being confident in what he can do on the floor.
“He comes into it like a boxer kind of feeling out the fight.” — Nolan Smith on Moore.
No doubt his confidence increased with his physical improvements, and vice versa, but how has it ultimately translated to his approach on game day?
If going by the eye test again, Moore seems to blend a little more during the first 20 minutes of the game, but tends to appear more aggressive and assertive offensively in the second half. To be clear, his productivity never seems to be less in the first half than in the second, it just seems there’s a very different mental approach.
“That’s kind of his way,” Smith said. “He comes into it like a boxer kind of feeling out the fight. Then he gets going once he knows the tempo, knows what he can get. I would like to think that’s him being very strategically smart, and just taking his time.”
Do the statistics support the eye test?
Kind of, but not drastically. In fact, it’s pretty close.
In the first half of games, Moore averages 7.5 points, 3.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists, while connecting on 54% of his field goal attempts and 37% of his 3-point tries.
Comparably, he’s averaging 10.3 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists in the second half of games, making 57% of his shots as a whole, and 46% from 3-point range.
He has attempted 10 more shots in the second half than in the first through eight games this season - clearly not a significant number. Similarly, he’s taken just six fewer 3-point shots in the second half than in the first.
So, the outliers: almost three points more in the second half and fewer 3-point shots with a higher percentage in each shooting category. Now, we’re not trying to grasp at straws here to show some kind of big difference, because clearly there’s not.
That said, the perception is interesting to consider. We tend to see him as more aggressive in the second half, as mentioned. His coaches could possibly see that as well.
“… But we would also love to see him throw himself into the fight with haymakers and let’s go. I would definitely like to see him go off for 20 in the first half and then see him finish off the second half, too,” Smith said in reference to his “blending” in the first 20 minutes and being more assertive in the second.
“He knows that he needs to put his foot on the gas. He needs to do it earlier and we need him to set the tone in the first half and the second half.”
For a player who has had an outstanding start to the year, that observation from Smith is just encouragement for Moore to be better. It’s also an expectation because the coaching staff knows that as good as Moore has been, he can be even more improved.
And while the eye test and analytics do not necessarily jive, it speaks more to a mentality and approach. As Smith noted, Moore is feeling out his opponent. His analogy to that of a boxer is a great representation.
Moore is still landing heavy shots in the first half, but he just might be setting his opponent up for a vigorous flurry of hard hitting blows that they didn’t see coming.
“He’s been talked about, he’s seen what people might be saying about him. Now, he truly believes in himself and his game. He knows what his game is, he knows what it takes and he knows that he’s our leader.”